The most important trend, I think, is the shift to the right among the under-30s. People generally don't get more liberal as they age. That would be my biggest worry if I were a Dem.
Admittedly, I teach in a business school in a deep red state. But I can definitely see it among my students. They roll their eyes at liberal pablum.
I had to think about this for a while before commenting. And I do think there are some more signs besides what you mentioned.
I do think Trump is building a coalition that can last, this time. In his first term he was too trusting of some of the long-term Republicans in DC, including Ryan and McConnell. This time he is bringing in a bunch of people, many of them younger and many of them outsiders in DC culture. Even Kristi Noem, though she had served 4 terms in Congress, also spent 10 years in office in her home state, both in the state legislature and as governor.
Another interesting item--even in states Harris did win, her vote totals were less than Biden's--Trump gained votes even in places like NYC. I lived for 32 years in Indiana. If you look at the maps of the elections by county, it's nearly a solid-red state, with a few blue dots. Two of them are urban areas--Indianapolis and Gary/Hammond; the rest are college towns, dominated by Purdue, IU, and Notre Dame. But in the 2024 election, even Purdue's county went red.
And the Democrats are really floundering right now. They do not have anyone who can lead the party. Pelosi, Hoyer, and several others are old and feeble. Hakeem Jeffries could not control his people during Trump's address to Congress. Walz is trying to put himself back in the limelight, but it's not going well for him. Newsom has his fingerprints all over the mess from the fires in LA; He's trying to move to the center, but I doubt if he could win a national election now. Bernie Sanders is out campaigning with AOC; but he's older than Trump, and he's technically not even a Democrat. AOC--yes, she is younger; but she has never even run for a statewide office, much less a national one. I suspect her appeal is mostly limited to her own district.
There is another factor, and it's a historical parallel. There have been two previous times when a party got frozen out of the president's office. It happened to the Republicans after FDR beat Herbert Hoover in 1932; there wasn't another Republican president until Eisenhower was elected in 1952. And after Lincoln's election in 1860, there wasn't another Democrat president until Cleveland won in 1884.
There have been two previous times in US history when political parties broke up--the Federalists after the War of 1812, and the Whigs after the Mexican War. During my lifetime, the Democrats have built a coalition of what might be called "outgroups"--blacks, gays, Hispanics and lately, Arabs. But what if their groups don't get along that well? Clear back in the '70s, some blacks did not like the gays appropriating the language of the Civil Rights movement. I've seen evidence that a lot of Hispanics look down on the blacks. A lot of lesbians are not that happy with what the transgenders are doing to women's sports. And the embrace of Palestinians may not be going over that well with the Jews. And there's plenty of evidence that the blue-collar workers, the backbone of the party when I was growing up, are gone for good!!
Your point about surrounding himself with younger people is very relevant. I think it’s worth adding that many of these same people have been wronged by the opposition, so they’re much more likely to continue Trump’s agenda after 2028. Trump selected his cabinet brilliantly.
You hit on it with your comment about the unappreciated MAHA mom. I predicted that this issue would resonate strongest with parents and in particular, mothers. MAHA, Title IX, & illegal immigration.
Republicans have nothing to fear from Democrats. The enemy is the Deep State. Right now, the Deep State sees backing Dems as the clearest pathway to maintenance of power. It used to be that The Deep State would oscillate between supporting Clinton Democrats (once they purged the McGovernite wing of the party) and Bush Republicans, maintaining a patina of bipartisanship when, in fact, the only loyalty was to the globalist uni-party. That's now the Dems' brand. The Bernie Sanders/AOC wing of the party has as much chance of being the government as a center-right populist party does in Romania, France, Germany, or the UK.
There has always been a problem sustaining a movement in the right of center. The far right and the left are very close because the differences aren’t linear but more circle like. The further out you go the closer to the other side you get. Once the motivating issue is solved the right goes back to living their lives. In the left lower and political engagement is their life. The solution is beyond my ken. One only needs to look at the strategy of France and the UK in their last elections. In France the center left and far left worked together so they wouldn’t split the vote and insured that the right wouldn’t win. In the UK the Tories and the Reform worked against each other and the socialists won overwhelmingly even though they didn’t increase their vote totals by much. I South Africa the DA now is in a coalition with the ANC. They achieved this without increasing their vote totals but people left the ANC to vote radical left and communists.
I see the MAHA sticker every now and then around here north of hopelessly ever-left Seattle. Hope? Who knows? Maybe it's a step towards a return of the crunchy granola libs.
The same question (will this movement survive him?) was probably asked about George Washington and Ronald Reagan. I think the answer is yes, for two reasons. Firstly, Trump’s MAGA movement is based on principles and a clearly articulated vision, not on a cult of personality. In truth many of his supporters (I’m one) find his brash Bronx mannerisms abrasive and a bit off putting. Secondly, he and his second term team are laser focused on dismantling the unconstitutional apparatus the Democrats have constructed to censor the right and fund themselves at the taxpayer expense. If he succeeds in institutionalizing a level playing field and transparent discourse, we win thereafter in the marketplace of ideas. Truly, this crass, trash talking real estate developer is a gift from God, and we’ll be building a monument to him on the Washington mall where our descendants can venerate him, within sight of the Washington Monument and the Jefferson Memorial.
"Though Obama was basically ruling from behind the scenes for the entire Biden Administration."
Yes, but Obama was two decades younger than Trump will be. As much as I support Trump, I don't think it would be good for the country or good for the movement for him to be that sort of éminence grise after his term is up. (It's not good for *any* President to have that level of influence.) I say that even if it means MAGA must suffer a period of powerless retrenchment -- but I don't think it will.
Vance is very capable and would be a good successor. I'm not sure I believe his vision is the same as Trump's, though he is being a good soldier now. Of course, Trump's is not the same as mine, either.
I'm a Tennessean as well and the fact that even in this deeply red state all of our cities are liberal enclaves of UN2030 progressivism is disturbing. Hopefully the Knox County GOP can demonstrate how to cancel the Chattanooga and Nashville Democrats. As for the rest of the State I'm afraid the West and Memphis is demographically lost.
The America First/MAGA movement will continue after Trump because it is, like the rise of the Phoenix, the resurrection of the Tea Party. Trump is the result of the Administrative State suppressing the Tea Party.
If suppressed again, the movement will regenerate and rise again as an even more disruptive, and possibly, destructive force in the future.
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.” - John F. Kennedy
I would never have imagined a pro-Tesla "protest" in West Knoxville 2 or 3 years ago, maybe on campus, but not at West Town. I never cared for the virtue-signaling Tesla owners, but how they've turned on the brand indicates some psychological condition that needs additional study.
Shortly after the election, I felt like I was the only person concerned about what will happen after Trump. I’m very pleased that many people more people are concerned about this. I’m absolutely overjoyed that people with influence are concerned about this.
The most important trend, I think, is the shift to the right among the under-30s. People generally don't get more liberal as they age. That would be my biggest worry if I were a Dem.
Admittedly, I teach in a business school in a deep red state. But I can definitely see it among my students. They roll their eyes at liberal pablum.
I had to think about this for a while before commenting. And I do think there are some more signs besides what you mentioned.
I do think Trump is building a coalition that can last, this time. In his first term he was too trusting of some of the long-term Republicans in DC, including Ryan and McConnell. This time he is bringing in a bunch of people, many of them younger and many of them outsiders in DC culture. Even Kristi Noem, though she had served 4 terms in Congress, also spent 10 years in office in her home state, both in the state legislature and as governor.
Another interesting item--even in states Harris did win, her vote totals were less than Biden's--Trump gained votes even in places like NYC. I lived for 32 years in Indiana. If you look at the maps of the elections by county, it's nearly a solid-red state, with a few blue dots. Two of them are urban areas--Indianapolis and Gary/Hammond; the rest are college towns, dominated by Purdue, IU, and Notre Dame. But in the 2024 election, even Purdue's county went red.
And the Democrats are really floundering right now. They do not have anyone who can lead the party. Pelosi, Hoyer, and several others are old and feeble. Hakeem Jeffries could not control his people during Trump's address to Congress. Walz is trying to put himself back in the limelight, but it's not going well for him. Newsom has his fingerprints all over the mess from the fires in LA; He's trying to move to the center, but I doubt if he could win a national election now. Bernie Sanders is out campaigning with AOC; but he's older than Trump, and he's technically not even a Democrat. AOC--yes, she is younger; but she has never even run for a statewide office, much less a national one. I suspect her appeal is mostly limited to her own district.
There is another factor, and it's a historical parallel. There have been two previous times when a party got frozen out of the president's office. It happened to the Republicans after FDR beat Herbert Hoover in 1932; there wasn't another Republican president until Eisenhower was elected in 1952. And after Lincoln's election in 1860, there wasn't another Democrat president until Cleveland won in 1884.
There have been two previous times in US history when political parties broke up--the Federalists after the War of 1812, and the Whigs after the Mexican War. During my lifetime, the Democrats have built a coalition of what might be called "outgroups"--blacks, gays, Hispanics and lately, Arabs. But what if their groups don't get along that well? Clear back in the '70s, some blacks did not like the gays appropriating the language of the Civil Rights movement. I've seen evidence that a lot of Hispanics look down on the blacks. A lot of lesbians are not that happy with what the transgenders are doing to women's sports. And the embrace of Palestinians may not be going over that well with the Jews. And there's plenty of evidence that the blue-collar workers, the backbone of the party when I was growing up, are gone for good!!
Your point about surrounding himself with younger people is very relevant. I think it’s worth adding that many of these same people have been wronged by the opposition, so they’re much more likely to continue Trump’s agenda after 2028. Trump selected his cabinet brilliantly.
Way to keep the pan simmering, Glenn.
Things can change in a short time. LBJ won a landslide in 1964, and four years later, a previously defeated Republican squeaked by in ‘68.
Nixon won a huge landslide in 1972, and was pushed out a year and a half later.
George HW Bush’s opinion polling positives were in the mid-80s shortly after Desert Storm in early 1991. He was defeated in November 1992.
Roger we have a fickle electorate.
We have a crooked mail-in ballot system that the electorate can't trust.
You hit on it with your comment about the unappreciated MAHA mom. I predicted that this issue would resonate strongest with parents and in particular, mothers. MAHA, Title IX, & illegal immigration.
Republicans have nothing to fear from Democrats. The enemy is the Deep State. Right now, the Deep State sees backing Dems as the clearest pathway to maintenance of power. It used to be that The Deep State would oscillate between supporting Clinton Democrats (once they purged the McGovernite wing of the party) and Bush Republicans, maintaining a patina of bipartisanship when, in fact, the only loyalty was to the globalist uni-party. That's now the Dems' brand. The Bernie Sanders/AOC wing of the party has as much chance of being the government as a center-right populist party does in Romania, France, Germany, or the UK.
There has always been a problem sustaining a movement in the right of center. The far right and the left are very close because the differences aren’t linear but more circle like. The further out you go the closer to the other side you get. Once the motivating issue is solved the right goes back to living their lives. In the left lower and political engagement is their life. The solution is beyond my ken. One only needs to look at the strategy of France and the UK in their last elections. In France the center left and far left worked together so they wouldn’t split the vote and insured that the right wouldn’t win. In the UK the Tories and the Reform worked against each other and the socialists won overwhelmingly even though they didn’t increase their vote totals by much. I South Africa the DA now is in a coalition with the ANC. They achieved this without increasing their vote totals but people left the ANC to vote radical left and communists.
I see the MAHA sticker every now and then around here north of hopelessly ever-left Seattle. Hope? Who knows? Maybe it's a step towards a return of the crunchy granola libs.
The same question (will this movement survive him?) was probably asked about George Washington and Ronald Reagan. I think the answer is yes, for two reasons. Firstly, Trump’s MAGA movement is based on principles and a clearly articulated vision, not on a cult of personality. In truth many of his supporters (I’m one) find his brash Bronx mannerisms abrasive and a bit off putting. Secondly, he and his second term team are laser focused on dismantling the unconstitutional apparatus the Democrats have constructed to censor the right and fund themselves at the taxpayer expense. If he succeeds in institutionalizing a level playing field and transparent discourse, we win thereafter in the marketplace of ideas. Truly, this crass, trash talking real estate developer is a gift from God, and we’ll be building a monument to him on the Washington mall where our descendants can venerate him, within sight of the Washington Monument and the Jefferson Memorial.
"Though Obama was basically ruling from behind the scenes for the entire Biden Administration."
Yes, but Obama was two decades younger than Trump will be. As much as I support Trump, I don't think it would be good for the country or good for the movement for him to be that sort of éminence grise after his term is up. (It's not good for *any* President to have that level of influence.) I say that even if it means MAGA must suffer a period of powerless retrenchment -- but I don't think it will.
One positive is that the Vice President, J.D. Vance, is very capable of continuing Trump's vision without Trump running things for him.
Vance is very capable and would be a good successor. I'm not sure I believe his vision is the same as Trump's, though he is being a good soldier now. Of course, Trump's is not the same as mine, either.
I'm a Tennessean as well and the fact that even in this deeply red state all of our cities are liberal enclaves of UN2030 progressivism is disturbing. Hopefully the Knox County GOP can demonstrate how to cancel the Chattanooga and Nashville Democrats. As for the rest of the State I'm afraid the West and Memphis is demographically lost.
The America First/MAGA movement will continue after Trump because it is, like the rise of the Phoenix, the resurrection of the Tea Party. Trump is the result of the Administrative State suppressing the Tea Party.
If suppressed again, the movement will regenerate and rise again as an even more disruptive, and possibly, destructive force in the future.
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.” - John F. Kennedy
I believe the preferred nomenclature is Spousetapundit.
Yes,all the head backs were not gray..certainly an age trend indicator
I would never have imagined a pro-Tesla "protest" in West Knoxville 2 or 3 years ago, maybe on campus, but not at West Town. I never cared for the virtue-signaling Tesla owners, but how they've turned on the brand indicates some psychological condition that needs additional study.
Yes,all the head backs were not gray..that’s an age trend certainly.
Shortly after the election, I felt like I was the only person concerned about what will happen after Trump. I’m very pleased that many people more people are concerned about this. I’m absolutely overjoyed that people with influence are concerned about this.