Three Small Items
On political passion in Trump's second term
One of the big questions about the Trump phenomenon is this — is it actually just a Trump phenomenon, or is it a movement? That is, is the movement based on personality, or is it based on a deeper seated desire to, I dunno, make America great again that goes beyond support for Trump himself?
If it’s a personality-based movement, then it’s unlikely to bring lasting change. A respite, maybe, as the leftist attempt to gather all strands of social power into the hands of the blob is set back and defunded, but only a respite, as the leftists never give up on trying to gather all strands of social power. Gleichschaltung isn’t just a pretty word, as Morticia Addams might say.
If it’s a deeper-rooted movement, though, it’s likely to have a major impact. A lot of voters are unhappy with how things have been going, but they’ll have to build an infrastructure, and a movement, that will outlast Trump. Trump is 78 now; he’ll be 82 when he leaves office, and even if he keeps an active hand in politics, I very much doubt he’ll have influence for long. (Though Obama was basically ruling from behind the scenes for the entire Biden Administration.)
The real test, or at least one real test, of this phenomenon will be the coming special elections in Wisconsin and Florida. A lot of people are saying that Trump voters only turn out to vote for Trump. If those elections go badly for the GOP, that will be a sign that Trump’s appeal is the main driver of Republican victories, which would be bad news for long-term change because his impact is time-limited. On X, Scott Pressler was sounding a bit discouraged a few days ago about Republican get out the vote efforts in those races, though it sounds like maybe things are going better now.
But in my neck of the woods I noticed three small signs in one day yesterday, and according to Kaus’s Rule of Punditry, three instances make a pattern. Well, maybe, but let’s share.
The first was a small pro-Tesla demonstration outside my local Tesla dealer. (Knoxville has a pretty big dealership, right at West Town Mall).
Okay, it’s not a big crowd. But notice that the signs aren’t about Trump. They’re about Elon, J.D. Vance, and Doge. And 2028. (Photos above by my lovely wife, who was driving by).
And just as important is that people were doing it. Again, not a big crowd, but when people on the right turn out to demonstrate, it’s a man-bites-dog story because that happens far less often than with people on the left. That people are doing this at all in my not-heavily-politicized town is a sign of sorts. There’s energy there and people wanting to do something.
A much bigger sign was Saturday’s GOP reorganization convention. The Knox County Republican Party has been pretty stagnant and inactive for years. The county as a whole is red, but the city of Knoxville within it is pretty blue. The city is still about 40% Republican voters, and the generally absurdly small turnout in city elections means that a Republican organization with good turnout skills could easily win elections — we’re often talking about only a few thousand votes, or less, being needed to swing an election in which most people don’t vote at all.
The Democrats have been highly organized along these lines with a lot of paid operatives (we now have some idea where that money was coming from!) but the GOP hasn’t done much by comparison.
That looks likely to change. Yesterday’s convention was packed beyond capacity — they were set up for like 500 people and by Helen’s estimate had more like 700, with people standing in the back for lack of space, and being kept out if they arrived late.
(These photos, too, by the Instawife, who was quite the little newsgatherer yesterday.)
There was much enthusiasm, and Martin Daniel, a former State Representative and friend of mine, was elected the new chair. He ran on a much more activist program, focusing on registration, turnout, and better candidate selection, all things that the local GOP apparatus has neglected for years. This degree of enthusiasm for grassroots grunt-level politics suggests something that goes beyond any Trump “cult of personality.”
And finally, here’s something I saw yesterday in the parking lot of a suburban Food City.
I’ve actually seen a few of these stickers around, but this was the first one I got a picture of. I’m on record as saying, even before the election, that the suburban “health mom” contingent is a source of unappreciated strength for the GOP; the willingness of suburban women to display these stickers says something about the waning hegemony of Democrats in that cohort, too.
In geometry, three points define a plane. In punditry, according to Mickey Kaus, they define a trend, at least for purposes of a column. In real life, well, we’ll see. But in each of these I saw some hope that there’s more going on than just celebrity appeal. In the end, of course, that depends on what people, including you, dear readers, decide to do.
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The most important trend, I think, is the shift to the right among the under-30s. People generally don't get more liberal as they age. That would be my biggest worry if I were a Dem.
Admittedly, I teach in a business school in a deep red state. But I can definitely see it among my students. They roll their eyes at liberal pablum.
I had to think about this for a while before commenting. And I do think there are some more signs besides what you mentioned.
I do think Trump is building a coalition that can last, this time. In his first term he was too trusting of some of the long-term Republicans in DC, including Ryan and McConnell. This time he is bringing in a bunch of people, many of them younger and many of them outsiders in DC culture. Even Kristi Noem, though she had served 4 terms in Congress, also spent 10 years in office in her home state, both in the state legislature and as governor.
Another interesting item--even in states Harris did win, her vote totals were less than Biden's--Trump gained votes even in places like NYC. I lived for 32 years in Indiana. If you look at the maps of the elections by county, it's nearly a solid-red state, with a few blue dots. Two of them are urban areas--Indianapolis and Gary/Hammond; the rest are college towns, dominated by Purdue, IU, and Notre Dame. But in the 2024 election, even Purdue's county went red.
And the Democrats are really floundering right now. They do not have anyone who can lead the party. Pelosi, Hoyer, and several others are old and feeble. Hakeem Jeffries could not control his people during Trump's address to Congress. Walz is trying to put himself back in the limelight, but it's not going well for him. Newsom has his fingerprints all over the mess from the fires in LA; He's trying to move to the center, but I doubt if he could win a national election now. Bernie Sanders is out campaigning with AOC; but he's older than Trump, and he's technically not even a Democrat. AOC--yes, she is younger; but she has never even run for a statewide office, much less a national one. I suspect her appeal is mostly limited to her own district.
There is another factor, and it's a historical parallel. There have been two previous times when a party got frozen out of the president's office. It happened to the Republicans after FDR beat Herbert Hoover in 1932; there wasn't another Republican president until Eisenhower was elected in 1952. And after Lincoln's election in 1860, there wasn't another Democrat president until Cleveland won in 1884.
There have been two previous times in US history when political parties broke up--the Federalists after the War of 1812, and the Whigs after the Mexican War. During my lifetime, the Democrats have built a coalition of what might be called "outgroups"--blacks, gays, Hispanics and lately, Arabs. But what if their groups don't get along that well? Clear back in the '70s, some blacks did not like the gays appropriating the language of the Civil Rights movement. I've seen evidence that a lot of Hispanics look down on the blacks. A lot of lesbians are not that happy with what the transgenders are doing to women's sports. And the embrace of Palestinians may not be going over that well with the Jews. And there's plenty of evidence that the blue-collar workers, the backbone of the party when I was growing up, are gone for good!!