A generation ago, we should have started growing our own scientist and engineers. We're not. One of my sons is in graduate school and over 75% of his year is foreign.
And considering colleges teach kids to hate their country, I'm learning Han.
People have a way of underestimating the probability of bad times, and particularly the likelihood of war. That makes it easy to sleepwalk into a large one, especially as is the case in America, where a vast majority of the citizenry has been personally insulated from war for a few generations now.
Very incisive summary. The key is Taiwan; it’s the equivalent of the Rhineland in the 1930s; the point where Hitler could have and should have been stopped. I’ve never been, but YouTube videos polling their youth are not encouraging. Compared to Ukrainians or Poles talking about Russia, they do seem unconcerned. Maybe it’s a cultural thing I’m missing. You don’t talk about it for fear of making it manifest, but underneath they’re prepared. I don’t know.
The other key is the U.S. election. If we have another Biden term, we and Taiwan are screwed. Trump I think has the credibility with the Chinese and our allies to halt the crisis. Everyone knows he means what he say, and delivers.
We are stumbling into a global conflict like a drunk who triggers a bar room brawl by crashing into a nearby table. The war in Ukraine will likely take a decisive turn when the weather warms up and Russia launches a Spring offensive. If Ukraine falls, what will neighboring Euro's do? They will likely arm up even faster than they are now when faced with a victorious Putin who may be looking for some payback. The US policy of weaponizing the $ has backfired spectacularly as Russia now sells all the oil it needs to sell to China, India, etc. Russia is arguably stronger now than before the UKR invasion.
Gaza threatens to regionalize once Israel attacks Rafah. And why wouldn't ISR attack? The world was never going to praise Israel for its restraint. So why wouldn't they go all in? MIght that trigger a response from Hezbollah in the north, backed by Iran?
With growing conflicts in Europe and ME, what will US do if China makes its play for Taiwan? Is there any country who thinks Biden can't be pushed around? Especially since China probably has proof that the Bidens are in their pocket. And if China does invade, is there anyone who thinks the current US has the stomach for a 2-front war?
This all reads like a 2024 version of the Guns of August.
Add to the list of worries, the "enemy within." There are more than a few Americans who would assist in the collapse of the United States. And there are more than a few Americans who would be comfortable living under a totalitarian dictatorship, as long as it is their side (or ideological ally) in power. They always believe that they will get everything they want from society at the expense of their enemies, but it is never long before they outlive their usefulness to the regime and find themselves with a one-way ticket in a cattle car.
One possible solution: make legal immigration much easier for those who will embrace individual rights and freedom, and for every new immigrant, exile someone who does not want to live in a free country that protects individual rights.
Second, and more important solution: an amendment to the U.S. Constitution that every citizen has the right to life, liberty, property, and the pursuit of happiness. 90% of our problems would disappear with that amendment.
Correct on all counts. There are large swaths of waste in DoD. Battalions and battalions of civilians and contractors need to be given their pink slips.
That is a very astute observation, although the most recent example would be Vietnam. While it was not at the scale of the upcoming conflict, it was significant if you were of draft age. We also avoided a fuller-scale engagement by sacrificing the opportunity to win.
The risk of catastrophic armed conflict is increased because our adversaries view Biden as weak and incompetent, which is the correct assessment. That gives them the advantage. He always shoots behind the duck, which means "too late," metaphorically. And not just to shoot, his forte is surrender. Imagine Biden in the circumstance we find ourselves in. It is hard to imagine anyone could be worse. Biden does not have the mental capacity to develop a strategy for these complex times. Anyone supporting him and his puppet masters is an absolute fool.
I think the best thing Taiwan Japan and others who rely on the US for deterrence and protection can do is to find a way to stop relying on the US. This is a lesson I hope Israel is in the process of learning. The US doesn't lead anymore and to the extent it does our leaders lack the fortitude to do so effectively. This is for all intent and purposes a post American world.
I believe the most dangerous time will be after a President Trump win in November and before the swearing in January. We will have an angry left with a President who was a tool of the left and an Administration filled with American haters. I pray I am wrong.
People vote with their feet. The young men and women in my neighborhood were raised by people who cannot imagine their children spending any time in the military. Arendt and Strauss told us what it was like to be Jewish in Russia and Germany before their big war, Reynolds is telling us what it is like in America before our big war (a great rabbi told us that there will always be war and rumor of war).
Prof- My father joined the National Guard in Clinton, Tn at age 16 in 1940 and was a Master Sargent at age 18! He won a contest for youngest Master Sargent run by Yank magazine and got a trip to Hollywood where he danced with Ava Gardner and other starlets at the USO. (He said she had a horrible complexion)
Peter Zeihan’s writings and speeches on this are interesting. He famously predicts China’s collapse as a coherent nation in less than a decade. That aside, or perhaps more pertinent to the prospects of a near term Taiwan invasion are (1)China has no deep water navy and can’t really project naval power much beyond the South China Sea. Japan has the world’s second largest deep water navy. India has a formidable Navy. Australia and other South Asian countries are arming up with high tech land-based ship killing weapons.
(2)China imports the majority of its food and most of its “food inputs,” all of its oil, and its economy is massively dependent on exporting manufactured goods. Its geography and lack of deep water navy makes it relatively easy to blockade (Taiwan Straits, Malacca Straits, etc.). It could be literally starved in a month.
(3) Xi has supposedly hollowed out the leadership structure of government, military and business in China, so that essentially no one competent is left, no one is giving Xi information for fear of displeasing the Emperor and getting disappeared. So, how effective would any Chinese war effort ge?
Disruption of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, for even a relatively brief time, would have significant impacts worldwide, though.
Nice essay, Professor. Jordan Peterson and others have pointed out that the relative calm in Germany that followed WW1 led to an enervated ennui of their young-adult (military-age) population. As a result, the challenge and struggle and sacrifice demanded by H.H. had a certain appeal to young 'uns' sense of purpose and perhaps even danger.
Does the U.S. have a comparable young population (who haven't died of fentanyl yet nor sought "gender affirming care") whose hunger for danger, passion, and purpose is sufficiently strong to leave video games and social media behind and engage in the real world?
My day job is helping to produce more oil and gas with horizontal wells. We will need oil and gas as the dollar's value plummets. I'm too old to serve unless they need a 50-something Jet Mech.
To raise awareness of our future plight I self-published a couple of books about a future war with China. "Arrow Storm", by Joe Salem, on Amazon ;), is about an attack on Taiwan, and an attack on America. The attack isn't to conquer but to intensify the rifts in the country and start a civil war. I wrote the first half in 2020 while watching the riots. I got some things right, a feckless and inept fictional president named Hamala Karris, a woke military and the use of drones to cripple our air force. I hope the rest of it is wrong, or the leadership starts to invest in manufacturing, steel and electronics. We will need it.
Using the WW2 metaphor: On Sep 1, 1939, General George C. Marshall became the head of defense. His first act was firing all the existing generals because they knew how to fight the last war. He promoted Eisenhower, Patton, Bradley, Truscott, MacArthur etc.
Would the Defense Dept do that today?
The next war also will be fought in social media. Glenn cites the Ukraine War as being similar to the Spanish Civil War but also look at the Israel vs Palestine War.
A generation ago, we should have started growing our own scientist and engineers. We're not. One of my sons is in graduate school and over 75% of his year is foreign.
And considering colleges teach kids to hate their country, I'm learning Han.
People have a way of underestimating the probability of bad times, and particularly the likelihood of war. That makes it easy to sleepwalk into a large one, especially as is the case in America, where a vast majority of the citizenry has been personally insulated from war for a few generations now.
Very incisive summary. The key is Taiwan; it’s the equivalent of the Rhineland in the 1930s; the point where Hitler could have and should have been stopped. I’ve never been, but YouTube videos polling their youth are not encouraging. Compared to Ukrainians or Poles talking about Russia, they do seem unconcerned. Maybe it’s a cultural thing I’m missing. You don’t talk about it for fear of making it manifest, but underneath they’re prepared. I don’t know.
The other key is the U.S. election. If we have another Biden term, we and Taiwan are screwed. Trump I think has the credibility with the Chinese and our allies to halt the crisis. Everyone knows he means what he say, and delivers.
I’m glad my son is not in this military.
We are stumbling into a global conflict like a drunk who triggers a bar room brawl by crashing into a nearby table. The war in Ukraine will likely take a decisive turn when the weather warms up and Russia launches a Spring offensive. If Ukraine falls, what will neighboring Euro's do? They will likely arm up even faster than they are now when faced with a victorious Putin who may be looking for some payback. The US policy of weaponizing the $ has backfired spectacularly as Russia now sells all the oil it needs to sell to China, India, etc. Russia is arguably stronger now than before the UKR invasion.
Gaza threatens to regionalize once Israel attacks Rafah. And why wouldn't ISR attack? The world was never going to praise Israel for its restraint. So why wouldn't they go all in? MIght that trigger a response from Hezbollah in the north, backed by Iran?
With growing conflicts in Europe and ME, what will US do if China makes its play for Taiwan? Is there any country who thinks Biden can't be pushed around? Especially since China probably has proof that the Bidens are in their pocket. And if China does invade, is there anyone who thinks the current US has the stomach for a 2-front war?
This all reads like a 2024 version of the Guns of August.
I've been feeling like it's 1938 for a while now. But it could be 1859...and China might be behind that possibility too.
Add to the list of worries, the "enemy within." There are more than a few Americans who would assist in the collapse of the United States. And there are more than a few Americans who would be comfortable living under a totalitarian dictatorship, as long as it is their side (or ideological ally) in power. They always believe that they will get everything they want from society at the expense of their enemies, but it is never long before they outlive their usefulness to the regime and find themselves with a one-way ticket in a cattle car.
One possible solution: make legal immigration much easier for those who will embrace individual rights and freedom, and for every new immigrant, exile someone who does not want to live in a free country that protects individual rights.
Second, and more important solution: an amendment to the U.S. Constitution that every citizen has the right to life, liberty, property, and the pursuit of happiness. 90% of our problems would disappear with that amendment.
Correct on all counts. There are large swaths of waste in DoD. Battalions and battalions of civilians and contractors need to be given their pink slips.
That is a very astute observation, although the most recent example would be Vietnam. While it was not at the scale of the upcoming conflict, it was significant if you were of draft age. We also avoided a fuller-scale engagement by sacrificing the opportunity to win.
The risk of catastrophic armed conflict is increased because our adversaries view Biden as weak and incompetent, which is the correct assessment. That gives them the advantage. He always shoots behind the duck, which means "too late," metaphorically. And not just to shoot, his forte is surrender. Imagine Biden in the circumstance we find ourselves in. It is hard to imagine anyone could be worse. Biden does not have the mental capacity to develop a strategy for these complex times. Anyone supporting him and his puppet masters is an absolute fool.
I think the best thing Taiwan Japan and others who rely on the US for deterrence and protection can do is to find a way to stop relying on the US. This is a lesson I hope Israel is in the process of learning. The US doesn't lead anymore and to the extent it does our leaders lack the fortitude to do so effectively. This is for all intent and purposes a post American world.
I believe the most dangerous time will be after a President Trump win in November and before the swearing in January. We will have an angry left with a President who was a tool of the left and an Administration filled with American haters. I pray I am wrong.
People vote with their feet. The young men and women in my neighborhood were raised by people who cannot imagine their children spending any time in the military. Arendt and Strauss told us what it was like to be Jewish in Russia and Germany before their big war, Reynolds is telling us what it is like in America before our big war (a great rabbi told us that there will always be war and rumor of war).
Prof- My father joined the National Guard in Clinton, Tn at age 16 in 1940 and was a Master Sargent at age 18! He won a contest for youngest Master Sargent run by Yank magazine and got a trip to Hollywood where he danced with Ava Gardner and other starlets at the USO. (He said she had a horrible complexion)
Peter Zeihan’s writings and speeches on this are interesting. He famously predicts China’s collapse as a coherent nation in less than a decade. That aside, or perhaps more pertinent to the prospects of a near term Taiwan invasion are (1)China has no deep water navy and can’t really project naval power much beyond the South China Sea. Japan has the world’s second largest deep water navy. India has a formidable Navy. Australia and other South Asian countries are arming up with high tech land-based ship killing weapons.
(2)China imports the majority of its food and most of its “food inputs,” all of its oil, and its economy is massively dependent on exporting manufactured goods. Its geography and lack of deep water navy makes it relatively easy to blockade (Taiwan Straits, Malacca Straits, etc.). It could be literally starved in a month.
(3) Xi has supposedly hollowed out the leadership structure of government, military and business in China, so that essentially no one competent is left, no one is giving Xi information for fear of displeasing the Emperor and getting disappeared. So, how effective would any Chinese war effort ge?
Disruption of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, for even a relatively brief time, would have significant impacts worldwide, though.
Nice essay, Professor. Jordan Peterson and others have pointed out that the relative calm in Germany that followed WW1 led to an enervated ennui of their young-adult (military-age) population. As a result, the challenge and struggle and sacrifice demanded by H.H. had a certain appeal to young 'uns' sense of purpose and perhaps even danger.
Does the U.S. have a comparable young population (who haven't died of fentanyl yet nor sought "gender affirming care") whose hunger for danger, passion, and purpose is sufficiently strong to leave video games and social media behind and engage in the real world?
My day job is helping to produce more oil and gas with horizontal wells. We will need oil and gas as the dollar's value plummets. I'm too old to serve unless they need a 50-something Jet Mech.
To raise awareness of our future plight I self-published a couple of books about a future war with China. "Arrow Storm", by Joe Salem, on Amazon ;), is about an attack on Taiwan, and an attack on America. The attack isn't to conquer but to intensify the rifts in the country and start a civil war. I wrote the first half in 2020 while watching the riots. I got some things right, a feckless and inept fictional president named Hamala Karris, a woke military and the use of drones to cripple our air force. I hope the rest of it is wrong, or the leadership starts to invest in manufacturing, steel and electronics. We will need it.
Using the WW2 metaphor: On Sep 1, 1939, General George C. Marshall became the head of defense. His first act was firing all the existing generals because they knew how to fight the last war. He promoted Eisenhower, Patton, Bradley, Truscott, MacArthur etc.
Would the Defense Dept do that today?
The next war also will be fought in social media. Glenn cites the Ukraine War as being similar to the Spanish Civil War but also look at the Israel vs Palestine War.