Peace and security is not the natural state of man. At least not in this world. We let the devil into this world very early on. Communism is only one of its legion of forms, albeit a particularly virulent strain with a particularly high body count. Are the sides lining up for the ultimate battle of good versus evil? We always think we're on the verge of that happening. One day we will we right.
People (some of them at least) just aren't happy if their fellow citizens or neighboring states are happy & prosperous. They seem to believe if they are miserable, everyone else should be as well.
"Just as in 1939-1941, the United States is (late as always) beginning to look at its Navy and Merchant Marine capacity, beginning to update its army and get serious about recruiting, etc."
I actually kind of like the fact that we are perpetually late. It's nice living in a great nation without ambitions of empire. Of course, that approach only has to fail once...
What it has always meant for our enemies (from the Confederacy to the Japanese Empire) is that they must beat us decisively in the first six months by a brilliant stroke, or reconcile themselves to a war of attrition they must lose. That’s why we’re always surprised by the outbreak. China will attempt the same.
Indeed. Front end time is extremely compressed, today. OTOH, domestically, I suspect recovery time has the potential to be much more tragic, painful, difficult, and extended than in the past.
If conflict starts today, Taiwan or anywhere else, we can 1) Choose not to fight 2) Win violently and fast or lose (logistic weakness) or 3) Go nuclear. The world moves faster than in the past, and logistically we are in poor shape relative to China today and in the immediate future. So, the argument is the U.S. and China are in a window where they have the advantage. It will take time to close that window, so China may choose to exploit it. Fingers crossed.
Correct. Speed and logistics are the primary differences between 1939 and today. We’ve lost some or much - you choose - of the security distance provided eighty years ago and much or some, in reverse order - again, you choose - of our logistical base. Logistically, both facility and skill sets seem problematic; neither is what it was eighty years ago and the loss of spin-up time caused by the the loss of time provided by distance eighty years ago is troubling.
Troublesome unknowns add to the mix of concerns. The reliability and fragility of electronic communications seems a big one to me. Their effects seem ‘limited’ ’only’ to financial systems, the grid, the production, distribution, and availability (the strategic reserve is depleted) of carbon-based energy, military and government comms, and other trivialities. Throw in the unknowns of adversary intelligence - think spy balloons traversing the continent and foreign-owned property - and the location and untold numbers of ‘innocent’ immigrant trouble makers who may have entered the country in the past four years.
There is much to be done and little time to do it. The Trump administration is up to the task, but entirely too many remain who need convincing. The notion that anyone, anyone, would seriously entertain the likes of Newsom, Mamdani, and any other prominent Democrat who come to mind as leaders the country and world need today is a serious concern.
A civil war here is not something I am that worried about. Unlike in 1861, the Dems do not have a contiguous land area that can stand together--they have little dots scattered around the country, surrounded by red areas. Here's a pair of election maps from 1992 and 2024 that show how much the country has changed--and how isolated the left actually is. These maps show the vote by county, with five shades each of red and blue to show how strong the vote was.
An incident that made the news lately here in my home town of Cincinnati, OH illustrates this, too. A demonstration started in downtown Cincinnati, and they decided to march across one of the bridges to Covington, KY, disrupting traffic as they went. Most non-locals may not know this, but the Ohio River is mostly under Kentucky's jurisdiction--the official state border is maybe 100 or so feet from the water's edge on the Ohio side. If they had stayed in Cincinnati, they would have been okay; the City of Cincinnati is run by liberal Democrats. But they crossed into KY's territory, the local police showed up, and a bunch of them got arrested.
One of the interesting things about living here is, the actual City of Cincinnati occupies only about 1/4 of the land area of Hamilton County, OH. The rest of the county is divided up into various small cities and villages, with their own local governments, plus unincorporated areas that are run by township governments. And from what I have been able to find out, half or more of those local governments are run by Republicans! I live in one of the townships, and I even have a Republican Rep in Congress!
Things may be a bit iffier on the international scene, but other countries seem to be realizing that Biden is gone. I have been seeing reports for some time that China's economy is weaker than it seems on the surface. And there have also been reports that Xi is losing support in his own party. And you can bet that Trump's action on Iran did not go unnoticed.
A future civil war is unlikely to be geographical, except in the most general terms, but far more likely to be akin to The Terror, or the early KKK fight against the Union during reconstruction, with individuals/classes/ethnic groups/political factions taking revenge for slights they believe they have suffered at the hands of their neighbors, aka, enemies.
With years of appeasement and finally Biden's shameful surrender at Kabul I think our rivals saw their main chance. Well, now they know we're not taking it lying down anymore. The era of fire hoses of "aid" and apologies is over. As for domestically, I think the added security is a tacit admission that immigration is dangerous and enforcement of the law is the weakest it's ever been. On purpose!
Thanks Blogfather. You are on to something as usual, grokking the fractal patterns in the matrix 6-12 months out.
I'm hoping you are right about the NoveauRich of the CCP restraining XI.
No way for them to keep getting their kids into universities and exporting their capital in empty McMansions and farmland in the US if Xi goes full Mao.
The Red Chinese ARE our peer competitor and of course sow unrest in various ways including buying 90% of Democrat pols and supporting radical islamists abroad and at home.
I kinda wonder just how compromised the CIA and FBI are, mole-wise. Thats next...
Keep up the great work!
PS: When are you buying a place in Floriduh, and where?
I appreciated your comment about finding ways to circumvent security measures. When I was in the Navy, that was one of our favorite things to do while on watch (i.e. what is the least number of people needed to commandeer and operate a submarine). Being in software development, that's part of my job now, too. I also used to crash conferences (specifically the parties). The key is acting like you belong there.
Similar thoughts have been niggling for my full attention for several months. China bears close scrutiny in their current power struggle. I am not worried about civil war as much. Money is drying up for the extreme left both from China and the NGO's. China is seriously kneecapped financially and the NGO world can't work in the spotlight. Currently the zeitgeist is not there. I acknowledge that events you address seem to be slowly pushing a change. The nature of zeitgeist, like bankruptcy, is slowly, then all at once.
There is a worse place: Just south of the Hotel Coronado where Seals train and choppers are constantly up and down the beach. Our daughter worked the front desk there and one guest asked if there could stop the noisy choppers. Really didn’t understand you don’t tell the Navy what to do m..
Once things got real, Franklin Roosevelt's solution was to round up the German saboteurs and send them to the electric chair.
Our response to 9/11 was similarly ruthless - all aircraft in American airspace down in 30 minutes. (I know people who were airborne at the time and have some pretty hair raising recollections.
Because we are a largely libertarian and free market society, our adversaries have always look at us as weak and irresolute. Historically, it has never ended well for them.
I believe it was Churchill that observed that there is no more formidable force on earth than an aroused democracy.
The only joy I will get if things today really get real will be listening to all the anti-American Democrats and billionaire supporters of ANTIFA and the like sobbing and blubbering for the flag of the USA.
I remember the 1970s when we had to close a passing advantage that the Soviet Union had just as the Reagan buildup started. Back then it turned out that the Soviet Union was far more brittle and weak than they appeared to be. I hope China is equally brittle and weak, but in any case we need to build up our military fast.
i expect that the PLA lacks both the competence and the commitment that characterized the Wehrmacht. but yes, they only need to get a few hits and we need to stop all of them.
Looking back at history, big wars often started by once powerful states losing that power & prestige seeking to regain prominence (cf: Prussia in the Austro-Prussian War & Imperial France in the subsequent Franco-Prussian War). The declining powers delude themselves that they are more than than are, and, in many cases, more than they ever were, and believe that a glorious victorious war which they are destined to win will right things. The same applies to civil wars where the faction "on the right side of history" is in decline, and they believe that if they start a revolution, the masses will rise up in their support. That too almost never works out well. In both cases, the declining power inevitably loses, but manages to cause great harm and suffering in the process.
Peace and security is not the natural state of man. At least not in this world. We let the devil into this world very early on. Communism is only one of its legion of forms, albeit a particularly virulent strain with a particularly high body count. Are the sides lining up for the ultimate battle of good versus evil? We always think we're on the verge of that happening. One day we will we right.
"Peace and security is not the natural state of man."
This is something so many people (it seems to me) don't understand. This is one of the Many Things I Don't Understand.
People (some of them at least) just aren't happy if their fellow citizens or neighboring states are happy & prosperous. They seem to believe if they are miserable, everyone else should be as well.
"Just as in 1939-1941, the United States is (late as always) beginning to look at its Navy and Merchant Marine capacity, beginning to update its army and get serious about recruiting, etc."
I actually kind of like the fact that we are perpetually late. It's nice living in a great nation without ambitions of empire. Of course, that approach only has to fail once...
What it has always meant for our enemies (from the Confederacy to the Japanese Empire) is that they must beat us decisively in the first six months by a brilliant stroke, or reconcile themselves to a war of attrition they must lose. That’s why we’re always surprised by the outbreak. China will attempt the same.
Indeed. Front end time is extremely compressed, today. OTOH, domestically, I suspect recovery time has the potential to be much more tragic, painful, difficult, and extended than in the past.
If conflict starts today, Taiwan or anywhere else, we can 1) Choose not to fight 2) Win violently and fast or lose (logistic weakness) or 3) Go nuclear. The world moves faster than in the past, and logistically we are in poor shape relative to China today and in the immediate future. So, the argument is the U.S. and China are in a window where they have the advantage. It will take time to close that window, so China may choose to exploit it. Fingers crossed.
Correct. Speed and logistics are the primary differences between 1939 and today. We’ve lost some or much - you choose - of the security distance provided eighty years ago and much or some, in reverse order - again, you choose - of our logistical base. Logistically, both facility and skill sets seem problematic; neither is what it was eighty years ago and the loss of spin-up time caused by the the loss of time provided by distance eighty years ago is troubling.
Troublesome unknowns add to the mix of concerns. The reliability and fragility of electronic communications seems a big one to me. Their effects seem ‘limited’ ’only’ to financial systems, the grid, the production, distribution, and availability (the strategic reserve is depleted) of carbon-based energy, military and government comms, and other trivialities. Throw in the unknowns of adversary intelligence - think spy balloons traversing the continent and foreign-owned property - and the location and untold numbers of ‘innocent’ immigrant trouble makers who may have entered the country in the past four years.
There is much to be done and little time to do it. The Trump administration is up to the task, but entirely too many remain who need convincing. The notion that anyone, anyone, would seriously entertain the likes of Newsom, Mamdani, and any other prominent Democrat who come to mind as leaders the country and world need today is a serious concern.
And then there is the threat of home-grown Islamic radicals, from generations of unvetted refugees who refuse to be part of American society.
A civil war here is not something I am that worried about. Unlike in 1861, the Dems do not have a contiguous land area that can stand together--they have little dots scattered around the country, surrounded by red areas. Here's a pair of election maps from 1992 and 2024 that show how much the country has changed--and how isolated the left actually is. These maps show the vote by county, with five shades each of red and blue to show how strong the vote was.
An incident that made the news lately here in my home town of Cincinnati, OH illustrates this, too. A demonstration started in downtown Cincinnati, and they decided to march across one of the bridges to Covington, KY, disrupting traffic as they went. Most non-locals may not know this, but the Ohio River is mostly under Kentucky's jurisdiction--the official state border is maybe 100 or so feet from the water's edge on the Ohio side. If they had stayed in Cincinnati, they would have been okay; the City of Cincinnati is run by liberal Democrats. But they crossed into KY's territory, the local police showed up, and a bunch of them got arrested.
One of the interesting things about living here is, the actual City of Cincinnati occupies only about 1/4 of the land area of Hamilton County, OH. The rest of the county is divided up into various small cities and villages, with their own local governments, plus unincorporated areas that are run by township governments. And from what I have been able to find out, half or more of those local governments are run by Republicans! I live in one of the townships, and I even have a Republican Rep in Congress!
Things may be a bit iffier on the international scene, but other countries seem to be realizing that Biden is gone. I have been seeing reports for some time that China's economy is weaker than it seems on the surface. And there have also been reports that Xi is losing support in his own party. And you can bet that Trump's action on Iran did not go unnoticed.
A future civil war is unlikely to be geographical, except in the most general terms, but far more likely to be akin to The Terror, or the early KKK fight against the Union during reconstruction, with individuals/classes/ethnic groups/political factions taking revenge for slights they believe they have suffered at the hands of their neighbors, aka, enemies.
With years of appeasement and finally Biden's shameful surrender at Kabul I think our rivals saw their main chance. Well, now they know we're not taking it lying down anymore. The era of fire hoses of "aid" and apologies is over. As for domestically, I think the added security is a tacit admission that immigration is dangerous and enforcement of the law is the weakest it's ever been. On purpose!
Thanks Blogfather. You are on to something as usual, grokking the fractal patterns in the matrix 6-12 months out.
I'm hoping you are right about the NoveauRich of the CCP restraining XI.
No way for them to keep getting their kids into universities and exporting their capital in empty McMansions and farmland in the US if Xi goes full Mao.
The Red Chinese ARE our peer competitor and of course sow unrest in various ways including buying 90% of Democrat pols and supporting radical islamists abroad and at home.
I kinda wonder just how compromised the CIA and FBI are, mole-wise. Thats next...
Keep up the great work!
PS: When are you buying a place in Floriduh, and where?
PS: love me some Schlicter.
Scary how his fiction is useful like tactical manuals for USArmy in a few short months...
I appreciated your comment about finding ways to circumvent security measures. When I was in the Navy, that was one of our favorite things to do while on watch (i.e. what is the least number of people needed to commandeer and operate a submarine). Being in software development, that's part of my job now, too. I also used to crash conferences (specifically the parties). The key is acting like you belong there.
Similar thoughts have been niggling for my full attention for several months. China bears close scrutiny in their current power struggle. I am not worried about civil war as much. Money is drying up for the extreme left both from China and the NGO's. China is seriously kneecapped financially and the NGO world can't work in the spotlight. Currently the zeitgeist is not there. I acknowledge that events you address seem to be slowly pushing a change. The nature of zeitgeist, like bankruptcy, is slowly, then all at once.
"China is seriously kneecapped financially"
And THAT makes them dangerous.
There is a worse place: Just south of the Hotel Coronado where Seals train and choppers are constantly up and down the beach. Our daughter worked the front desk there and one guest asked if there could stop the noisy choppers. Really didn’t understand you don’t tell the Navy what to do m..
I wish Taiwan would “test” a ballistic missile with a big non-nuke warhead and an explosion maybe 180* away from 3 Gorges, but that exact distance.
Being prepared for a Chinese attack is the single best way to minimise the likelihood of an attack.
Rebuilding the Navy, with a new focus on drones, is like WW II need for carriers.
Once things got real, Franklin Roosevelt's solution was to round up the German saboteurs and send them to the electric chair.
Our response to 9/11 was similarly ruthless - all aircraft in American airspace down in 30 minutes. (I know people who were airborne at the time and have some pretty hair raising recollections.
Because we are a largely libertarian and free market society, our adversaries have always look at us as weak and irresolute. Historically, it has never ended well for them.
I believe it was Churchill that observed that there is no more formidable force on earth than an aroused democracy.
The only joy I will get if things today really get real will be listening to all the anti-American Democrats and billionaire supporters of ANTIFA and the like sobbing and blubbering for the flag of the USA.
I remember the 1970s when we had to close a passing advantage that the Soviet Union had just as the Reagan buildup started. Back then it turned out that the Soviet Union was far more brittle and weak than they appeared to be. I hope China is equally brittle and weak, but in any case we need to build up our military fast.
i expect that the PLA lacks both the competence and the commitment that characterized the Wehrmacht. but yes, they only need to get a few hits and we need to stop all of them.
I Hope You're Wrong.....BUT!
Good News The Recruitment crisis is over.
> In it’s pre-Xi mercantile days
S/b “its.”
Looking back at history, big wars often started by once powerful states losing that power & prestige seeking to regain prominence (cf: Prussia in the Austro-Prussian War & Imperial France in the subsequent Franco-Prussian War). The declining powers delude themselves that they are more than than are, and, in many cases, more than they ever were, and believe that a glorious victorious war which they are destined to win will right things. The same applies to civil wars where the faction "on the right side of history" is in decline, and they believe that if they start a revolution, the masses will rise up in their support. That too almost never works out well. In both cases, the declining power inevitably loses, but manages to cause great harm and suffering in the process.